Reference chart
Lottery Odds by Prize Tier
By &Pixels, the studio that builds MyCalculator.to. Odds are fixed by each game's matrix and are published by the lottery operators. Prizes are the standard amounts before any multiplier.
Every Powerball prize tier with its real odds, what buying more tickets actually does, and why the advertised jackpot is not a sum of money.
Where the odds come from
Entirely from the game matrix. Powerball draws five numbers from sixty-nine and one from twenty-six. There are 11,238,513 ways to choose the five, and twenty-six possible red balls, so there are 292,201,338 tickets that could be printed and exactly one of them wins.
Nothing else moves that number. It is the same on a rollover as on a small jackpot, because the matrix has not changed. A growing jackpot changes what the prize is worth, not how likely it is.
Powerball prize tiers
| Match | Prize | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 5 plus Powerball | Jackpot | 1 in 292,201,338 |
| 5 | $1,000,000 | 1 in 11,688,054 |
| 4 plus Powerball | $50,000 | 1 in 913,129 |
| 4 | $100 | 1 in 36,525 |
| 3 plus Powerball | $100 | 1 in 14,494 |
| 3 | $7 | 1 in 580 |
| 2 plus Powerball | $7 | 1 in 701 |
| 1 plus Powerball | $4 | 1 in 92 |
| Powerball only | $4 | 1 in 38 |
| Any prize at all | 1 in 24.9 |
The one in 24.9 at the bottom is the figure most often quoted back as encouraging, and it is worth reading carefully. It is dominated by the last two rows, which pay $4 on a $2 ticket. Winning something is common. Winning more than the ticket cost is not.
The calculators behind this
What buying more tickets does
| Tickets in one draw | Jackpot odds | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 292,201,338 | $2 |
| 10 | 1 in 29,220,134 | $20 |
| 100 | 1 in 2,922,013 | $200 |
| 1,000 | 1 in 292,201 | $2,000 |
| 10,000 | 1 in 29,220 | $20,000 |
The odds do improve exactly in proportion, and that is the point of the table. Twenty thousand dollars of tickets leaves a one in twenty-nine thousand chance. Buying every combination would cost about $584 million, which has been attempted historically and is usually defeated by the cash option, tax, and the risk of splitting the prize.
One ticket a week gives you, on the arithmetic, one jackpot every 5.6 million years.
The two big games compared
| Game | Matrix | Jackpot odds |
|---|---|---|
| Powerball | 5 of 69, plus 1 of 26 | 1 in 292,201,338 |
| Mega Millions | 5 of 70, plus 1 of 24 | 1 in 290,472,336 |
| Mega Millions, before April 2025 | 5 of 70, plus 1 of 25 | 1 in 302,575,350 |
The third row is there because it explains why charts disagree. Odds are only valid for the matrix they were calculated from, and matrices change. If a published figure does not state the matrix beside it, there is no way to tell whether it is current.
The jackpot is not a sum of money
The advertised figure is an annuity paid across thirty years. Taking it as cash instead, which nearly every winner does, returns roughly half. Federal tax then applies, with 24 percent withheld at once and a top rate of 37 percent, and many states take more on top.
So a headline of $500 million is closer to $250 million as cash and materially less again after tax. That gap is the reason the arithmetic of a very large jackpot almost never turns positive, even at the point where the advertised number exceeds the odds.
How the odds are calculated
- Start from the game matrix, not the advertising. Powerball is 5 numbers from 69 plus 1 from 26. Everything else follows from that.
- Count the total combinations. The ways to choose 5 from 69 is 11,238,513, multiplied by 26 for the red ball.
- Divide, do not compare. Odds of a tier are total combinations divided by the ways that tier can happen.
- Note that the odds never change. They are fixed by the matrix. A rising jackpot changes the prize, not the chance.
- Discount the headline jackpot. It is an annuity across thirty years. The cash option is roughly half, and tax applies after that.
To run the numbers for a different game or a different matrix, the lottery odds calculator takes the pool sizes directly, and the probability calculator handles the general case of combined and repeated events, which is what the ticket volume table above is doing.
A lottery ticket is entertainment with a known and negative expected return, and these figures are here so that is visible rather than implied. If it stops feeling like entertainment, the National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-522-4700.
Formula & Methodology
Did you know? Choosing numbers from birthdays cannot change your odds of winning, because every combination is equally likely. It does change what a win is worth: it confines every number to 31 or below, and so many players do the same that a jackpot hit on those numbers is far more likely to be shared.
Sources
- Published Powerball prize tier odds, from the 5 of 69 plus 1 of 26 matrix
- Published Mega Millions matrix change of April 2025, gold ball pool reduced from 25 to 24
- US federal withholding and top marginal rates applicable to gambling winnings